Data is from https://covidtracking.com and is updated nightly. It’ll typically be about 24hrs behind the “official” numbers from https://covid19.mt.gov/. That’s good for these purposes because the current day’s numbers often fluctuate throughout the day as reports come in and may be unusually low in the morning ramping up towards the end of the day and some jurisdictions may not report updates over the weekend.
The point of this comparison was first to look at the MT curve vs the whole of the country and try to tell when each was actually starting a downward slope or slowing the rise to visually see whether the curve was being “flattened”.
CA was added on 3/31 after a Presidential briefing showed a chart alleging CA was making significant progress in their efforts. The raw data does not seem to support their statement, at least not after 3/25. Although these numbers are actual reported counts and are not population-weighted like the graphs presented in the briefing.
UPDATE 4/20: Was noticing the curves were not reflecting reports from politicians that curves were being flattered. The “# Positive” numbers being reported are always “worst-case” high numbers and do not get reduced by the number of recoveries, so they were cumulative counts, not CURRENT counts. Changed my formula to POSTIVE-RECOVERED to reflect recoveries and current infection counts. Looks MUCH more promising for Montana, but no obvious flattening of US or CA curves. The big dip in the MT curve is due to MT not reporting recoveries until all at once on April 8.
UPDATE 7/1: Anyone regularly watching this chart as it has started and continues skyward for the second time has probably noticed that since the numbers on these charts are CALCULATED and not simply scraped from available data will already know, but I feel it’s best stated that my calculated numbers will not precisely match the official “Active” counts from the Montana State Library ArcGIS Dashboard. The goal of this page was and is to show “The Curve” for Montana and how we compare to a larger state and the country as a whole.
Everytime WordPress updates the theme for this site, it wipes out the code that displays the charts so if you don’t see them, please email YOURFREAKINGCHARTSARENTWORKINGAGAIN@durxxx.com and I’ll try to repair quickly.